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2014 Palm Beach & Swale Stakes

Swale Stakes at Gulfstream

No Nay NeverOn Saturday, March 1st, 2014 we have the $200,000 Grade 2 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The Swale Stakes is the 9th race on the card for Saturday and will feature a field of 7 three year olds traveling 7 furlongs. The big talk in this race is about the 3 year old season debuts for Havana at 9/5 on the morning line and No Nay Never at 2/1 on the ML. Havana was 2 for 3 as a two year old, winning a 80k straight maiden at Saratoga by 2 ¾ lengths then following that with a win in the Grade 1 Champaign at Belmont by a neck. He ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile missing the win by 1 ¼ lengths. Havana looks great for this one, but No Nay Never is definitely going to be a problem. No Nay Never is undefeated in 3 starts, including 2 overseas wins at Ascot and Deauville. Trainer Wesley Ward had this to say about No Nay Never-

“It seems to me that Gulfstream is his preferred surface. That’s a little scary with all he’s accomplished. I’m really excited for this race. I usually don’t get too excited for races. I’m really excited that Havana’s going to be in there. Obviously, you’d like an easier race to come back in, but he is training so good right now. I think it will let him show his true class.”

Can't Stop the KidHere’s the problem with the Swale. I look for No Nay Never to go straight to the front. If Havana goes with him it could be an exciting fight to the finish! Both have great speed and honestly, I’m torn between the two. Yet, there is still another problem. Can’t Stop the Kid is likely to go with them and that 3 way speed-fest could turn into an advantage for a stalking horse. Can’t Stop the Kid is 6 to 1 on the morning line and will have Luis Saez in the irons. Saez has a knack for judging where he needs to be and at the right time, so to play devil’s advocate, I’ll go with Can’t Stop the Kid as my value play (although I really like No Nay Never and Havana). For a longshot play, I like Brothersofthetime at 12 to 1 on the ML. He is certainly capable of the stalk or late run and if the speed war in this race takes the best out of the top horses here, Brothersofthetime might squeak in a real upset.

 

Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream

Storming IntiThe $150,000 Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes is the 10th race on the card at Gulfstream on Saturday and will feature a packed field of 13 three year olds traveling 1 1/8 mile on the turf. The 3 to 1 morning line favorite is Storming Inti who is undefeated in his last 4 starts. Trained by Chad Brown, Storming Inti won the Kittens Joy in his last outing by a head and will be the one to beat here. Javier Castellano returns as his rider for the Palm Beach. For value, I’m looking at Cabo Cat at 6 to 1 on the morning line. Cabo Cat ran 3rd in the Kittens Joy, missing the win by 1 ¼ lengths. He made an impressive charging run in the stretch and gained some serious ground in doing so. I think he has the potential to be there at the end and upset this field. For a way out there longshot to consider, I’m considering So Lonesome at 12 to 1 on the ML. He won the Virgo Libra at Aqueduct by a head in his last outing and although he may have shown less speed in that race than what I would want to see against the top contenders here, I believe he could pull off a late charge and surprise them all. Good luck everybody!

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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