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2014 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland

Personal DiaryIt is time to preview the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth 11 Challenge Cup at Keeneland for three year old fillies going a distance of 11/8 miles with a purse of $500,000. The favorite in this race according to the morning line is Victoria Oliver’s Personal Diary with Corey Nakatani in the irons. She is coming off of a nearly three length victory in the Del Mar Oaks in mid-August. She likes to run from off the pace as was evidenced in this impressive romp at nine to one. Second choice in the ML is Chad Brown’s Minorette with Joel Rosario up. Her latest victory came in the Belmont Oaks Invitational in August. She won that Grade 1 event by stalking the pace and edging away at the end at a little over six to one. She really likes to lay just off the pace and then make her move. Third choice in the morning line is Chad Brown’s second entry, Ball Dancing with Joe Bravo getting the call. Ball Dancing has had only one race in the U.S. and she won that event which was the Grade 2 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont Park. She prevailed in that one by coming from behind and winning by ½  length. That race was in mid September.

Crown QueenSo what we have here are three horses that like to run from off the pace more or less. A couple of them like to come from pretty far back and one likes to stalk the pace, staying closer to the lead. Our dilemma is which one will win it. I mean that is what we are playing for right? The winner? Well all I can give you is my opinion, so here goes. What we must remember here is that these are three year old fillies. They are not necessarily seasoned veterans. From the three mentioned above you do not really have any front end speed. And I believe that front end speed may well win this race. That being said, I am going with a lightly raced filly, William Mott’s Crown Queen with John Velazquez in the irons. She is the winner of three in a row including a Grade 2 event at Saratoga. I don’t believe she has to go wire to wire, but I think she will win it with Personal Diary second and Minorette third. Good handicapping Guys and Gals!

 

 

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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