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2015 Florida Derby

Gulfstream’s Florida Derby

UpstartIt is time to preview the Grade 1 Florida Derby for 3 year olds going a distance of 11/8 miles for a purse of  $1,000,000. This race is one of the first 100 point races for the Kentucky Derby Points System. If you are unfamiliar with the points system, you can read up on it here- 2015 Kentucky Derby Points System. The morning line favorite is Rick Violette’s Upstart with Jose Ortiz in the irons. This three year old has won two straight including the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, however he was disqualified and placed second in that one. In fact he has never been out of the money in six lifetime starts. He is more of a stalker than anything else and his speed figures have been impressive. He was a strong third in the Juvenile Breeders cup to Texas Red who has now been sidelined with foot problems. He is a New York bred, but we can’t hold that against him. Second in the ML is Todd Pletcher’s Itsaknockout with Luis Saez in the saddle. This one was the beneficiary of Upstart’s disqualification so technically he is undefeated in three lifetime starts. In his second start he was entered in an optional claiming race, but was not eligible to be claimed. He won that one handily by five lengths. He likes to be as close to the lead as possible. The jury is still out on him as a Kentucky Derby horse, but a win here could help further that notion.

MaterialityThird choice of the morning line is another Todd Pletcher trainee by the name of Materiality with John Velazquez as the pilot. This one has only raced twice, but won both of them. He is a speed horse that won his first race at 6 furlongs easily and then carried that speed over a 11/8 mile distance and again won with relative ease. This son of Afleet Alex and half-brother to My Miss Sophia will be heard from I assure you. So the question is who will win this all important points race here at Gulfstream? Three year olds are always hard to handicap this time of year but here goes. I believe this is a rematch between the top two in the morning line, but the winner will not be either. I think Materiality will improve and win this one with Upstart second and Itsaknockout third. Happy horse picking Guys and Gals!

 

 

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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