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2015 Louisiana Derby

Fair Grounds’ Louisiana Derby

International StarLet’s take a preview of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby for three year olds going a distance of 11/8 miles for a purse of $750,000. This race is one of the first 100 point races for the Kentucky Derby Points System. If you are unfamiliar with the points system, you can read up on it here- 2015 Kentucky Derby Points System. The morning line favorite is Michael Maker’s International Star with Miguel Mena in the saddle. This one is undefeated this year with two starts under his belt,  including the Grade 2 Risen Star here at the Fair Grounds. He likes to come from off the pace and has the highest last race speed rating in the race. Second choice in the ML is D Wayne Lucas’ Mr. Z with Kent Desormeaux in the irons. This one likes it on or close to the lead. Why Lucas left Oaklawn with this one is anyone’s guess. He was beaten as the favorite in the Smarty Jones and the Southwest Stakes, so I can only surmise that he must think the going will be easier here. Personally, I don’t think he is a Derby horse, but I could be wrong.

War StoryThird choice in the morning line is Thomas Amos’ War Story with Joseph Talamo coming east to ride. This one got off to a slow start in both of his last two races and finished second to International Star in each. I would say he likes to come off the pace, but I really don’t know that because he was forced to run that way since he started slowly in both. He even hesitated at the start of his first race, so it is really hard to determine his true running style.  So I am forced to pick a winner here because that is what is expected from me. I really like War Story here. Why? Well, I think if he can get over hesitating at the start we will get a true indication of how good he is. He just worked a 5 furlong in 58 4/5 and maybe Joe Talamo is just what he needs. I think International Star will be second and MR Z will run third. Happy Handicapping Gals and Guys!

 

 

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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