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2015 Rebel

Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn

DortmundLast weekend we got to witness 3 Kentucky Derby Points Races in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, the San Felipe at Santa Anita and the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs. In the San Felipe, Dortmund pulled out another win by 1 ¼ lengths. Dortmund is undefeated and off to one heck of a start with 5 straight wins. In the Gotham, El Kabeir picked up an impressive 2 ¾ length victory.  Finally in the Tampa Bay Derby, Carpe Diem strolled home to the tune of a 5 length victory. All of these horses earned points in the Kentucky Derby Points System, taking them all a step closer to this year’s Kentucky Derby. If you are unfamiliar with the points system or just want all of the information concerning these races, see our post here- 2015 Kentucky Derby Points System. Be sure and bookmark that page for future reference as we are constantly updating it as these races take shape. This Saturday we have another point’s race in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Chalk was all over the place in last weekend’s races, so let’s see if we can spot some value here in the Rebel!

Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes

Take Charge BrandiThe $750,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is the 10th race on the card at Oaklawn on Saturday and will feature a field of 7 three year olds traveling 1 1/16 mile. I’ll be the first to admit that I am disappointed that Take Charge Brandi will not be in this race as originally planned. I would have loved to see how the boys would stack up against this filly, but a non-displaced bone chip in her right knee will have her sidelined for a while. The morning line favorite in the Rebel will be American Pharoah at 1 to 2. This will be the debut of his 3 year old campaign and quite honestly will be the one to beat here. American PharoahHe’s really the only one in this field who likes to go to the lead early and that makes him super dangerous. Bob Baffert said he is not giving jockey Victor Espinoza any specific instructions in this race, but I would bet most anything that Espinoza takes him out front and never looks back. But just in case he doesn’t or one or more of these horses tries to go out early with him, let’s look for value. The most likely entry to go out early is Madefromlucky at 6 to 1 on the ML. In case American Pharoah has some trouble or decides not to take the early lead, I’ll give Madefromlucky a shot. But my main value play is The Truth Or Else at 4 to 1 on the ML. He has the inside post and his rail-rider Calvin Borel in the irons. He made a nice second place effort in the Southwest and I believe is only getting better. Good luck everybody!

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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