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2015 Santa Anita Derby

Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita

CaliforniaChromeThis is one of the last big weekends for Kentucky Derby points with the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, the Blue Grass at Keeneland and this year’s Santa Anita Derby. If you are unfamiliar with the Kentucky Derby Points System then there’s not a better time than now to take a look- 2015 Kentucky Derby Points System. Be sure and bookmark that page as it could be very valuable to handicapping this year’s Kentucky Derby! In last year’s Santa Anita Derby, we got an exciting glimpse of what was to come when California Chrome won it by 5 ¼ lengths. Let’s see what this year’s Santa Anita Derby has to offer us!

The Santa Anita Derby

DortmundThe $1,000,000 Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby is the 8th race on the card at Santa Anita on Saturday and will feature a field of 6 three year olds traveling 1 1/8 mile. The morning line favorite is Dortmund at 3 to 5 and there is no doubt that this undefeated son of Big Brown is the one to beat here. No one has been able to best Dortmund in all 5 of his career starts, including 3 graded stakes wins.  The short 6 horse field is a direct result of Dortmund’s dominance. But as always, I’m here to play devil’s advocate and see if there is even a glimmer of value or an upset waiting in the wings. As much as I love this horse, let’s see what case I can make for one of the other 5 to beat him. Let’s start with the obvious. Dortmund sits with 70 points on the Kentucky Derby Points System leaderboard and in all honesty, doesn’t need the win to get in to this year’s Kentucky Derby. One Lucky DaneDoesn’t mean he won’t try to grab his piece of the large purse here, but it also means that if he doesn’t need to exert himself, he shouldn’t. The Kentucky Derby is the prize at this point and he’s already assured himself an entry. Now I know what you’re saying- money is money and there’s no reason for this horse to win as much of it as he can, not to mention holding on to his undefeated career… but if I have to dig out a reason for Dortmund to not give it his all, this is a good one to consider. If jockey Martin Garcia sees that he has to push Dortmund hard or even worse, find himself in a situation to take a risk, I’m betting that he has been given instructions not to. Save the best for next month. Still, this is a weak excuse for why one of these others can beat him. Prospect ParkIn all likelihood he will give it his all. One problem he’ll face is his rail post and One Lucky Dane right next to him. This is a speed duel in the making right from the start. On top of that, Bolo is likely to chase that early lead as well. With that in mind, my choice for value here is Prospect Park at 7/2 on the ML. He made a most impressive late charge in the San Felipe and missed catching Dortmund by 1 ¼ lengths. The added distance here should be to his advantage. My longshot play is One Lucky Dane at 5 to 1 on the morning line. Should no one go with him, he could control the pace and upset this field. Good luck everybody!

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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