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Handicap Horse Racing’s 2013 Kentucky Derby Review

2013 Kentucky Derby

kentuckyderby2013Well it’s that time of year again. The Kentucky Derby is upon us. I love the month of May because so much happens for me this time of year. Besides the Derby and the Preakness, I have a birthday and my oldest son has a birthday as well. But I digress. Let’s talk about the Derby.

In the last 33 run for the roses only 4 have been won by the post time favorite. That is a significant statistic when you are trying to determine who you are going to bet. I don’t know about you but I am going to look elsewhere for the winner.

The pre-Derby favorite is Orb at 7/2. Now this does not mean that he will be the post time favorite. I expect that honor falls to Verrazano. If it does then I believe the favorite will again fail to win this historic race.

kyderbyforecastThere is also the weather to consider because they are calling for rain. If the surface comes up muddy or sloppy then it changes the entire situation.

Anyway I am going to attempt to pick the winner of this race. Now don’t go mortgage your house to bet my selection (not that anybody would). This is horse racing after all and anything can happen. Case in point, in 2009 Mine that Bird paid $103.20 and won going away. So take my selection with a grain of salt.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

Before giving you that pick, I am going to mention just a few of what I believe to be contenders. They are not in any particular order.

orb

Orb

Orb is the morning line favorite and rightly so. He is coming into the race sharp as a tack, on a 4 race win streak including the Foutain of Youth and the Florida Derby.

Goldencents

Goldencents is a speed horse that has very good numbers and will have a say in the outcome of this derby.

itsmyluckydayItsmyluckyday

Itsmyluckyday won the Holy Bull Stakes in track record time and ran second to Orb in the Florida Derby.

Overanalyze

Overanalyze won the Arkansas Derby going away. However it was the slowest Arkansas Derby time in a very long time.

revolutionaryRevolutionary

Revolutionary is a late runner that has won 3 in arrow including the Louisiana Derby. Look for him down the lane late.

Palace Malice

Palace Malice was 2nd by a neck in the Bluegrass. He is adding blinkers for the first time in this race.

verrazanoJava’s War

Java’s War won the Bluegrass from well off the pace. Has his work to do from the 19 post.

Verrazano

Verrazano is undefeated in 4 starts and is probably going to be the post time favorite. He won the Wood Memorial in his last start. Personally I don’t believe the hype.

 

So Who Will I Bet in the 2013 Kentucky Derby?

will-take-chargeSo there are some of the contenders for the 2013 Kentucky Derby. If I left out the one you liked, please forgive me. I left out one I like as well. Anyway, here is the way I will bet the Derby.

I am going to box Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday,Orb and Overanalyze in the exacta and trifecta. I am going to bet Itsmyluckyday to win and place. And I am going to bet Will Take Charge to win and to place. Why am I betting so many?  Because it is The Run for the Roses and anything can happen. Besides I had a dream last night about Will Take Charge and I pay attention to my dreams. 😆

So there it is. My selections for this year’s Derby. Take it with a grain of salt and please, bet responsibly.

 

Bet Your Pick In The Derby Here!

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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2 Responses to “Handicap Horse Racing’s 2013 Kentucky Derby Review”

  1. Mark says:

    When you are behind in the standings you not only have to find a viable longshot – you should also be able to make a case for your selection.I just may have found prudent justification in my selection of Mylute as my top pick for the Derby. Most analysts seem to be discounting Mylute’s ability to go the distance.This is where it gets interesting. Giving credit where credit is due , I quote Dick Powell. “Even though he was a champion sprinter Midnite Lute was a BIG horse from Bob Baffert that had distance written all over him. Unfortunately, he had a breathing problem and couldn’t compete going long – so Baffert shortened him up where all he had to do was make one big run to blow by everybody”. Hmmm. Also mentioned by Powell is that his first crop of horses to run all began to come around and prosper the end of last year and the beginning of this year. In other words they all appear to be late bloomers at this point in their development. This fact alone is indicative of his last race finish of 2nd to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Worthy of note is his last seven race speed figures just keep getting better. His workouts at Churchill indicate he is not only at the top of his game but he has taken a liking to the track in a very positive fashion. Last, but far from least, is Rosie in the irons.Presently she is the hottest jock(ess) in the nation and should be looked upon as a huge positive.

    • Handicap Horses says:

      Mylute has truly shown that he is steadily improving and has impressed me all along the way! I certainly wouldn’t mind seeing Mylute and Rosie at the finish and I can promise you, I had already considered putting some cash on him tomorrow along with Will Take Charge. Good luck, Mark!

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