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HHR’s 2 Year Old Stakes Watch- 7-12-2014

5 Two Year Old Stakes

Wonder GalThis Saturday we have 5 two year old stakes races up for consideration. Before we dive into this onslaught of baby races, let’s take a look at the results of last Saturday’s Lynbrook Stakes at Belmont. In the Lynbrook, first time starter and favorite, Wonder Gal, demolished her competition in a 14 ½ length romp. She paid $3.60 for the win. My value play for the Lynbrook was Accelebrate, who ran a very distant 2nd and paid $6.10 for the place. Now let’s take a look at the 2 year old races for this weekend and see what value we can find. There are 2 two year old stakes races at Gulfstream, 2 at Lone Star and one at Arapahoe.

CTBA Lassie Stakes

Poker RunThe $40,000 CTBA Lassie Stakes is the 6th race on the card at Arapahoe on Saturday and will host a field of 7 two year old fillies traveling 6 furlongs. The 5/2 morning line favorite is Ms. Battlefield. Undefeated in 2 starts, Ms. Battlefield likes to make a middle of the pack run to earn her wins. In the case of this race, that running style might not be good enough. Her rival on the ML is Poker Run at 3 to 1. She won her first and only outing in gate-to-wire fashion and earned the highest speed figure in this field doing so. She won that 6 furlong event by 4 ¾ lengths driving and will be my slight value play in this one. For a longshot to consider, I like Crazy Cora at 5 to 1 on the morning line. Like Poker Run, she likes the early lead and if she can hold the distance, she may give Poker Run a bit of a challenge.

TTA Sales Futurity Stakes- Filly Division

Lone Star ParkThe $100,000 TTA Sales Futurity Stakes Filly Division is the 6th race on Lone Star’s racing card for Saturday and will feature a field of 9 two year old fillies going 5 furlongs. The 6/5 morning line favorite is Vivian Da Bling. She won her first and only outing at Lone Star by 9 ½ lengths in a 5 furlong event at Lone Star and will be the one to beat here. Vivian Da Bling likes going straight to the lead, though, and there are several in this field who will try and go with her. For the sake of trying to find some value, we need a filly here who can strike from off the pace, should the struggle for the lead wear down Vivian Da Bling. Because of this, my value play is Carol’s Flyer at 10 to 1 on the ML. In her last outing, she won by stalking the pace and allowing the speed duel in front of her peter out. She won by 1 ¾ lengths. If she can manage this type of running style here, I feel she can pull off the upset.

TTA Sales Futurity Stakes- Colt Division

Bret CalhounThe $100,000 TTA Sales Futurity Stakes for the boys will be in the 8th race at Lone Star. 9 two year old colts and geldings will sprint 5 furlongs in this event. The 8/5 morning line favorite is Supermason. Supermason won his last race by 4 ½ lengths in a 5 ½ furlong event, described in the past performance as “easily”. But like most of the 2 year olds in this race, Supermason will seek the early lead and he will have a fight on his hands, especially with W V Jetsetter. Because of this, I’m going with Gold Flight at 5 to 1 on the ML as my value play. He is one of three entries here that is trained by Bret Calhoun. The other 2 are Supermason and W V Jetsetter. He’ll have a handle on the front end speed with these two and a stalker in Gold Flight who could pick up the pieces.

Birdonthewire Stakes

DekabristThe $75,000 Birdonthewire Stakes is the 9th race on the card at Gulfstream on Saturday. A field of 11 two year olds will duke it out over 5 ½ furlongs. The morning line favorite is Dekabrist at 5/2. Dekabrist already has one stakes victory under his belt by winning the Kodiak Island Stakes and is undefeated in 2 starts, both at Gulfstream. Although there is a lot of front end speed entered here, for this race I think there is one here who can outlast the speed duels and possibly take this one in for the win. For value, that play is Carlito’s Dream at 8 to 1 on the ML. In his first and only outing, Carlito’s Dream won it wire-to-wire by 13 lengths handily. I look for him to do the same here. Should he get caught up in a speed duel, I’m looking at Vespertini for my longshot play at 15 to 1 on the morning line. Vespertini won his last race in a late charge that may be useful here if the speed duel breaks down.

Cassidy Stakes

Curlin's PrincessThe $75,000 Cassidy Stakes is the 10th race at Gulfstream Saturday and will host a field of 14 two year old fillies traveling 5 ½ furlongs. The 3 to 1 morning line favorite is Dogwood Trail. Dogwood Trail won her first and only race by 5 ¾ lengths in a hand ride over 4 ½ furlongs. Her works are sharp and there is no doubt she will be the one to beat in this field. Curlin’s Princess poses a big threat here, though at 4 to 1 on the ML. She won her last race under a hand ride by 4 ½ lengths in a 5 furlong event and should give Dogwood Trail a run for her money. For a value/longshot play, I’m considering Artistic Touch at 15 to 1 on the morning line. She made a most impressive win in her last race in come-from-behind fashion. She looks to improve here and may spring a surprise upset in this field at a very nice price. Good luck everybody!

 

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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