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HHR’s 2 Year Old Stakes Watch August 11th

2 Year Old Stakes on Tap

Skylander Girl Winning Ontario DebutanteSaturday in the 2 year old stakes watch we had only 3 races- the Northlands Sales and Filly Sales Stakes and the Ontario Debutante at Woodbine. In the Filly Sales at Northlands, Honey Candy stole the show winning by 6 ¾ lengths. That was followed by Legend Fortynine’s 11 ¼ length romp in the Northland Sales Stakes.  Finally, one of my favorites, Skylander Girl, sailed home to a 2 ½ length victory in the Ontario Debutante Stakes at Woodbine. For today, there are 5 two year old stakes races to see- the Cavonnier Juvenile at Santa Rosa, the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth, the Vandal Stakes at Woodbine and the Adirondack and Saratoga Special at Saratoga. I will be covering the Adirondack and Saratoga Special in another blog post here. As for the other 3, let’s see what we’ve got!

Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes at Santa Rosa

Skydreamin, Olympic Jumble & Tupelo Cush fight it out in Lost in the FogThe $50,000 Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes is the 9th race of the day at Santa Rosa. This will be a 6 horse field of two year olds going 6 furlongs. The 2 to 1 morning line favorite in the Cavonnier is Hirschy. This son of Papa Clem is coming out of a ¾ of a length maiden win at Santa Rosa on August 1st.  He is definitely going to be a tough one to beat. For starters, he made a huge rally in that race passing 4 horses from stretch to home. He’s sporting some good workouts as of late and has a nice jockey/trainer combo in jockey Russell Baze and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Luck Lasts is next in the morning line odds at 5/2 and could give Hirschy a battle in this one. Luck Lasts ran 3rd in the Everett Nevin Stakes at Pleasanton in a 10 horse field and that kind of experience could come in handy here. Running 4th in that race was Outlook and just barely gave up the show spot to Luck Lasts. Having not broken maiden yet, Outlook will get overlooked by the public and is certainly worth consideration for a value play. There are 2 here, though that are primed for this race and are the ones I’ll be wagering on. First up is Time for Angie.  She’s the only filly in the race, but she has some great experience from running 4th in the CTBA at Del Mar and 3rd in the Cinderella at Hollywood. Her workouts look sharp and I think she may be ready to strike in the Cavonnier. For a better price, I like Tupelo Cush.  Tupelo Cush ran 6th in the Everett Nevin, but I’m considering that race a bounce. The race before that one is the one that has caught my eye. Tupelo Cush ran 2nd in the Lost in the Fog Stakes at Golden Gate, missing it by a head to Skydreamin. Skydreamin has beat over half of this field, which makes Tupelo Cush a dangerous horse here.

Colleen Stakes at Monmouth

Jonesin for JerryWe’ll be going 5 furlongs over the turf in the $60,000 Colleen Stakes at Monmouth. A field of 11 fillies will line up for this one. The morning line favorite here is Flay Mignon who is in a coupled entry with Pray a Novena. Both fillies look sharp for the Colleen, but Flay Mignon stands out having won 100k maiden claimer by 2 ¾ lengths at Monmouth. Her works are fantastic and she has a great jockey/trainer combo in jockey Paco Lopez and trainer Edward Plesa Jr. As for speed, Jonesin for Jerry has it! Jonesin for Jerry failed in the  Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga, but got a 2nd place finish at Pimlico and a 6 length win at Delaware. Her works are good and she’ll have the blinkers on here. For value, I have 3 horses I’m keeping an eye on. The first is Sara Bay. I like this filly because she is the only one here who has been tested on the turf. She ran 4th in the Tippett at Colonial and her works look good going into this race. I also like the other Sara, Sara’s Angel. She won her maiden race by 12 lengths at Penn National and has some smoking workouts heading into the Colleen. Finally, I have to consider morning line 8 to 1 Aibhilin. This daughter of Sky Mesa won her maiden race by 7 ½ lengths at Parx and looks good here, too.

Vandal Stakes at Woodbine

Go GreeleyThe $150,000 Vandal Stakes at Woodbine is the 8th race of the day and features Ontario bred 2 year olds traveling 6 furlongs. The 5/2 morning line favorite is Go Greeley, ridden by Eurico Da Silva and trained by John A. Ross. There’s no doubt why Go Greeley is favored here since the colt ran a very close 2nd in the Clarendon and followed up with a win in the Colin Stakes by 2 ½ lengths.  He will certainly be the one to beat here. Many are looking at the 3 to 1 morning line Heart to Heart as Go Greeley’s main opponent in the Vandal. Heart to Heart won his maiden by 8 ¼ lengths in a straight maiden 38k at Arlington. The colt certainly stands a good chance, but I believe there are a few others that may surprise us in this race. Maritime Pulpit ran 3rd in the Clarendon behind Go Greeley. Although he has yet to break maiden, Maritime Pulpit has had some nice works leading up to this race and I expect we’ll see some improvement here. At 10 to 1 morning line odds, he could pay nicely. For a big value play, I think that Grom is the most overlooked horse in this race and stands to turn some heads in the Vandal. He ran 4th in the Clarendon behind Go Greeley and Maritime Pulpit. He has some decent works that are showing his improvements and his inclination to come from behind may just prove the needed edge here. At 20 to 1 morning line odds, I’ll have to take a chance on Grom. For a non-starter, you may consider Matador. This two year old has some fantastic works and with trainer Mark Casse and jockey Luis Contreras in his corner, Matador is likely to charge.

Be sure to take a look at our coverage of the Saratoga Special and Adirondack Stakes for today and good luck to all!

 

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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