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HHR’s 2 Year Old Stakes Watch- November 23rd

10 Two Year Old Stakes

Asserting BearThis Saturday, November 23rd, 2013, we have 10 two year old stakes races to consider! Because it is a 2014 Kentucky Derby points race, the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes will have a write-up all to itself here- 2013 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. That leaves us with 9 for this article, but before we get into that, let’s recap last Sunday’s feature. In the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine, our value play, Asserting Bear upset this field by one length and paid $19.90 for the win. Majestic Sunset was a surprising 2nd and paid $19.20 for the place, and our longshot play, Man o’ Bear ran a close third. I wish I had caught Majestic Sunset in my selections because the $2 trifecta brought in $1090.30! Alas, such is the life of the handicapper, lol. Maybe we can find a nice payout (or 9!) in the nine races we have on tap for this Saturday! Let’s get started.

Arizona Breeders’ Futurity (Males)

Deadly Black EagleThe $35,000 Arizona Breeders’ Futurity at Turf Paradise for 2 year old colts and geldings is the 6th race on the card Saturday. A field of 11 will battle over 6 furlongs. The morning line favorite at 7/2 is Deadly Black Eagle. Deadly Black Eagle has 4 wins in is his 8 career starts, including a 1 ¼ length victory in his last outing on November 6th. Due to the other front-end speed in this race, I like Lawly’s Goal as my value play at 10 to 1 on the ML. Lawly’s Goal was 3rd in the last race that Deadly Black Eagle won and with today’s pace scenario he should make a late run here for the win. For a longshot play, I choose Easy Hit for the same reasons at 12 to 1 on the morning line. He dead heated for 3rd with Lawly’s Goal in that same race and just like Lawly’s Goal, he has the potential to do well here, too.

Arizona Breeders’ Futurity (Females)

Turf ParadiseRace 8 at Turf Paradise is the Arizona Breeders’ Futurity for 2 year old fillies. This field of 12 two year old fillies will travel 6 furlongs. Lazy Daisy May is the morning line favorite at 4/5 and is coming out of a 5 ¼ length victory in the October ATBA Sales Stakes at Turf Paradise. She should definitely be the one to beat in this one. For my value play, I’m looking at Nevergetsold with 6 to 1 on the ML. I’m assuming that’s “never gets old” as opposed to “never get sold” since she was claimed at Keeneland, lol. Nevertheless I feel she has the potential to get there in this one and could provide a nice upset. For a longshot, I’m going with Enact at 8 to 1. i’m not so sure that Enact could take this one, but I do believe she will make the effort needed to hit the board and shouldn’t be left out of any exotics.

Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood

TamarandoThe $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes is the 8th race on Saturday’s card at Hollywood Park and will feature 8 two year olds travelling 1 1/16 miles. The top contender here is Tamarando. Tamarando ran 3rd in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes in his last outing and has a 3rd place finish in the Grade 1 Front Runner Stakes, as well as a victory in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Tamarando is definitely the one to beat in this one and the pace set-up should be in his favor. Looking to best him again is Better Bet who won the Golden State Juvenile by ½ length over Electric Eddie. But I look for Beach Hut to be the value in this one. He has a lot of company fighting for the front-end, but if one should hold on to that lead throughout, I believe it will be Beach Hut, hopefully at a good price. Should the front-end duel fall apart as expected, Tamarando should win this one.

New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct (Males)

Empire DreamsThe $150,000 New York Stallion Series is the 2nd race on the card Saturday at Aqueduct and will host a field of 6 two year olds set to go 6 furlongs. The 6/5 morning line favorite is Empire Dreams. Empire Dreams has the best speed figure of this bunch and should win here, but for value I like Lady’s Smart Alec who won his career opener by 8 lengths ridden out. He fell a little short of reaching the speed figure Empire Dreams has had, but it was his first time out and with such a large lead, he didn’t have to go any faster. He will have to in this race, but I feel the Finger Lakes’ shipper has got what it takes to upset this bunch. My longshot consideration would be Social Rebellion at 20 to 1. His speed figures are not exactly where they need to be, but his works are strong and I feel he should at least run in the money.

New York Stallion Series at Aqueduct (Females)

Miss NarcissistThe $150,000 New York Stallion Series for 2 year old fillies is the 5th race on the card at Aqueduct. For this event we have a field of 8 two year old fillies set to go 6 furlongs. Miss Narcissist is the 2 to 1 morning line favorite. In her last race, Miss Narcissist won the Joseph A Gimma Stakes at Belmont by 5 ¼ lengths. She’ll go straight for the front-end lead with a few challengers, but nothing that’s really going to tire her out, I’m afraid. I do think that stalker, Skye Saratoga has a shot at catching her at 5/2 on the ML, so she would be my value choice. But the longshot play is the one I’m looking at to upset this field and that is Missy Bay at 5 to 1 on the morning line. There is a real good chance that Miss Narcissist and Skye Saratoga will get tangled up in a battle that will wear on them both, giving the late runner a pretty good shot.

Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine

Executive AllureThe $125,000 Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine is the 8th race on Saturday and will spotlight a field of 8 two year old fillies traveling 7 furlongs. The 2 to 1 morning line favorite is Zensational Bunny. There’s no doubt that this little bunny can move, but she’s in a much tighter field of competition that the ML implies. Choices like Executive Allure at 4 to 1 and Shanagarry at 10 to 1 look just as impressive. Again, there just seems to be too much comparable front-end speed in this one and I think that will leave it open for a late runner like my choice for longshot, Henry’s Island. Henry’s Island won her last race by 2 lengths and although her speed is not on par with the favorite, I believe she will get there.  Look for the late run. For value (and only a touch at 5/2) you have to consider Norquay. Her speed is comparable and her running style will suit her well here.

Louisiana Legacy at Delta Downs

Say CharlieThe $150,000 Louisiana Legacy is the 3rd race on the card at Delta Downs Saturday and will feature a field of 10 two year old colts and geldings going 1 mile. The 6/5 morning line favorite is Ide Be Cool who is undefeated in 2 starts. There is no doubt that this young gelding has the speed figures to dominate this field and he will be the one to beat. Chances are, Ide Be Cool will run away with this one and not look back. Our only hope for a value play will be if he gets a bad start or is somehow worn down by the other front end runners here (which by the way is very doubtful!). If that was to happen, my choice for upsetting him would have to be Mypalcharliebrown at 4 to 1 on the ML. Mypalcharliebrown may have a little more in the tank than we’ve seen and if any of these have a chance at contesting Ide Be Cool, it would have to be him. Unfortunately, I’m afraid Lucy’s going to pull the football out from under him here. Good grief. The only option for a longshot would have to be Say Charlie at 8 to 1 who won the Louisiana Stallion Stakes in September.

Louisiana Jewel at Delta Downs

Delta DownsThe $150,000 Louisiana Jewel is the 9th race at Delta and will feature 9 two year old fillies going 1 mile. The 9/5 morning line favorite is All Woman. All Woman won her last outing by 7 ¾ lengths at Delta and looks fit for this race. She’ll have Rosie Napravnik in the irons and will be a tough one to beat. Diva Dash will be a real threat to her, though and must be considered at 5/2 on the ML. I could see this filly stalking her way into a victory here. For a longshot, I’m going with Lady Notional. She won the Louisiana Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes but was placed 4th through a disqualification. In the Happy Ticket Stakes she failed to show us anything, but in her last race she made a nice 3rd place effort. I believe that her connections are still working on improving her and now that she has had some rough runs out of her system, she should bump up and show us something here. I’m not so sure she has the speed to take this one in for the win, but I do believe she should hit the board.

Delta Downs Princess Stakes

BahnahThe Grade 3 $500,000 Delta Downs Princess Stakes is the 6th race on the card for Saturday and will showcase a field of 7 two year old fillies traveling 1 mile. The 2 to1 morning line favorite is Miss Behaviour. Right on her hooves is Bahnah at 3 to 1 and I believe these 2 will struggle to outrun one another and capture the front end lead. For value, I like Tepin at 9/2 on the morning line. She ran 3rd in the Rags to Riches at Churchill, but she put up a serious speed figure in her maiden win at Keeneland. If she can come back to that form, as I suspect she will, she should have no problems putting away the top 2 contenders. For a longshot, I favor Appreciating at 6 to 1 on the ML. This shipper out of Woodbine is primed and ready here and may very well upset this field. Good luck everyone!

 

 

 

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Mike Jr, eldest son of Mike Lane Sr, is co-lead author at HandicapHorseRacing.com and was raised on thoroughbred horse racing and handicapping. Although father and son often butt heads on their selections, they both have much love and admiration for the sport. Mike Jr. brings a new, fresh perspective to horse racing and is often in search of new angles to try.

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