Mike Sr’s 2015 Kentucky Derby Picks

Kentucky Derby 2015

American PharoahIt is time again to preview America’s premier thoroughbred horse race, the Kentucky Derby. This race is for three year olds going a distance of 1 ¼ miles for a purse of $2,000,000.  This race in my opinion will be the most interesting Run for the Roses in recent history. It will be very competitive and filled with intrigue from start to finish. I just love the first Saturday in May! Why will this race be so fascinating? First off, you have an unbeaten colt in here who is not the morning line favorite. Bob Bafferts’s Dortmund with Martin Garcia up will try to be the first unbeaten horse to win this race since his sire Big Brown did it in 2008. DortmundSecondly, you have another Baffert horse that is the morning line favorite, American Pharaoh with Victor Espinoza in the irons. Both these horses love to run on the lead and both can be rated also. Thirdly you have at least seven horses that have shown that they want to be in the first tier of horses when they leave the gate. It is going to be a cavalry charge from the get go. Also, no Derby in recent history has had so many quality horses go postward. I am telling you that this race will be a dandy. I would not be surprised to see a huge payoff in the superfecta or the trifecta. If the two favorites run completely out of the money it will possibly be sign up for taxes at the payoff windows. Seriously.

Carpe DiemSo here I go trying to handicap the biggest race in America. As I said before, the morning line favorite is Baffert’s American Pharaoh. I watched this horse demolish the field for the Arkansas Derby and it looked like he could have beaten anyone that day. He likes it on the lead, but can be rated if need be. I just don’t know how tough the field was that day. Far Right and Mr Z were both in that race, but were far behind the winner. And Pharaoh was just cruising and was never asked for anything. The second choice in the ML is Bob Baffert’s Dortmund with Martin Garcia in the saddle. MaterialityThis horse is undefeated in six starts and he too likes it on the front end, however he has been rated before and it seems as if he can do it any way he wants. He has beaten the likes of Firing Line, Mr Z and Bolo and it doesn’t matter how he does it, he just finds a way to win. Third choice of the morning line is Todd Pletcher’s Carpe Diem with John Velazquez up. Here is another who likes to run on or near the lead and Velazquez chose to ride this one over Materiality who is also a front runner and unbeaten in three starts. Carpe Diem won the Bluegrass Stakes and has only lost one time and that was to Texas Red who is not in the Derby. If he was, we could possibly be looking at a different favorite.

FrostedSo what do we do here? This is really a tough one to decipher. And I have not even talked about the likes of Frosted or International Star or El Kabeir. Perhaps I should have because Frosted and Star both come from off the pace and that may bode well for either of them and Kabeir has Calvin Borel aboard and he will make this race interesting, too. It all depends on who travels without any traffic problems. It is my humble opinion, and I am not sure at all about this, that Frosted will get there first with American Pharaoh second and International Star third. Happy Derby Pickin Guys and Gals!



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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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