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Suburban Shootout & Saintly Dwyer

Flat Out Gunning For Suburban

Last GunfighterSaturday’s Belmont card has two interesting Graded stakes on tap and I have an interesting way of looking at these races. First off let’s check out the Suburban Stakes which is the 8th race on the card. The Suburban is a Grade 2 handicap for three year olds and upward contested at 11/8 miles over the main track and has a purse of $350,000. Let’s look at the probable favorite for this affair which is Last Gunfighter.

Last Gunfighter has not lost since he won his maiden race and that includes 2 Grade 3 stakes races with speed figures that are pretty impressive. All of his victories have been run as a stalker in the race. He just lays 2 or 3 lengths off the leader and then pounces. In today’s race he looks to me like he will run the exact same way.

I have one concern with Last Gunfighter and that is that his last race was on my birthday, May 17 of this year. That is almost a two month layoff. I don’t know for sure if he will be ready for the July heat with no races under his belt lately. Maybe he’ll be ready. Maybe not. After 7 consecutive wins, one thing is for sure, he may bounce.

Gunslingers Aiming For Last Gunfighter

Flat OutSo who will set the pace here? I believe it will be Percussion who set the pace in the Brooklyn and was run down by the very late running Calidiscopio. I’m sure he thought he had it won until the ten year old  came from out of the sky to steal it from him. A race like that has to have left a physiological scar on the horse, and I feel like it will carry over in this race. Sorry. Percussion, I am not a psychiatrist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express one time.

I believe Flat Out is interesting here. The form says he will be even money but there is no way he will beat out Last Gunfighter as the favorite. He has a stalking nature also and will make a huge run down the stretch. In fact I believe he will win the race with Last Gunfighter second and Alpha, who won the Travers last year, third.

Pletcher Combo in Dwyer Mix

BattierNext is the prestigious Dwyer Stakes which is for three year olds going a distance of 1 1/16 mile. Todd Pletcher, who always tries to get an edge in the stakes races, has two horses entered in this one. The first one is Battier. Although he has won a stakes race, he has absolutely no graded stakes experience, and has just been taken into the Pletcher barn. He seems to have been better suited for sprint races but with Pletcher training now, who knows.

Todd Pletcher’s other charge is Abraham. This horse has run better at the distance and will probably be the betting favorite, so you know I have to try and beat him so let’s look at two others.

Glorious Saints to the Dwyer Charge

For Greater Glory is one to consider. He will be flying from the back of the pack and he has Graded stakes experience, although he did not hit the board in either of those stakes events. He will give you some value for your betting dollar. I expect him to run a very good race.

Saint VigeurSaint Vigeur ran a bang up race in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, however he got beat by 13 lengths by Freedom Child but beat the next horse by 2 lengths or so. I just am not crazy about horses that have had a 2 month lay-off. However, if you look at his wins, they came off of lay-offs.

So my pick for the Dwyer is Saint Vigeur first, For Greater Glory second and Abraham third.

Good luck to everyone!

 

 

 

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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