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The Wise Choice in the 2013 Shadwell

2013 Shadwell Turf Mile

Wise DanLet’s take a look at the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland. This race is for three year olds and up going 1 mile with a purse of $750,000. The morning line favorite is everyone’s favorite, Wise Dan. Does anybody really believe that they have a shot here to beat a horse that has won nine in a row? He loves the turf and although I rarely pick the chalk, and he will be the chalk of chalks here, I simply can’t pick against him. I know he will be 1 to 5 and the reward is not worth the amount of money you would have to wager to make it worth your while. So what would I do? I would probably get me a hot dog or a corn beef sandwich and sit back and watch the race without wagering. Now there are ways you could make a lot of money without risking much but it would take a miracle for it to happen. Let’s say for example’s sake that Dan doesn’t even finish in the money. (Ha!) If he didn’t finish at least third the payouts would be astronomical! I have seen scenarios where the 1 to 5 favorite finished 4th and the show payouts were $78+! Seriously. That is because so much money was placed on the favorite to show that it overloaded the pool and when he didn’t show, the money was divided between those who bet on the lucky horses that did. That won’t happen here…probably. The best way to make any money here without risking much is to bet the exacta one way, with Wise Dan on top and your horse second. Just cold bet it. Don’t wheel it or box it. Just bet it one way and hope your horse finishes second.

Silver MaxSo let’s see if we can pick a second place finisher. The second choice in the ML is Neil Drysdale’s Winning Prize. I really kind of like this horse. He comes from Argentina and has a Grade 1 win over there on the turf. He will probably be on or near the lead in this one. Next is Dale Romans Silver Max. He also will be vying for the early lead here. He has won 2 in a row on the turf with good speed figures but both of those wins were at 11/16 miles. I have come to a conclusion about this race and it is one you probably won’t like. But it is my money and I will use it how I want to use it. I am going to take it to the window and…purchase a big corned beef sandwich and I will be washing it down with a large sweet tea while I watch one heck of a race. Pretty wise eh? Good luck guys and gals!

 

 

 

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Handicap Horses

Co-lead Author & Admin at Handicap Horse Racing
Mike Lane, Sr is co-lead author and administrator of HandicapHorseRacing.com. With over 38 years of experience and a degree in the "School of Hard Knocks" for handicapping, Mike has seen it all when it comes to thoroughbred racing and wants to help other horse players learn how to handicap and avoid the mistakes he has made in the past.

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